Kristianstad 3–0 Lödde: Result & Stats

Kristianstad

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lödde

A. Aganovic 64'

S. Wikstrom 60'

K. Svensson 48'

6/1/2024

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 10Kristianstads Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kristianstad50%

×Draw24%

Lödde26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KristianstadExpected goals in this matchLödde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.17

Kristianstad

1.70

Lödde

1.17

Kristianstad creates 45% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 13 away

1.71

creates per match

1.15

1.18

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Kristianstad

1.71

Lödde

1.15

allows per match

Kristianstad

1.18

Lödde

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kristianstad+0.00on par

Lödde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristianstad ↓

Lödde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kristianstad or draw

74%

Kristianstad or Lödde

76%

Draw or Lödde

50%

Winning margin

Kristianstad wins by 2+

27%

Lödde wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kristianstad 1+ goals

82%

Kristianstad 2+ goals

51%

Kristianstad 3+ goals

24%

Lödde 1+ goals

69%

Lödde 2+ goals

33%

Lödde 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kristianstad (draw refunded)

65%

Lödde (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristianstad at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 72 matches

Lödde away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristianstad attack 1.71 + Lödde defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.70

Lödde attack 1.15 + Kristianstad defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kristianstad scores more

50%

level

24%

Lödde scores more

26%

Kristianstad at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kristianstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

K. Svensson

60'

S. Wikstrom

64'

A. Aganovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff