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Kristianstad vs Asarum — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Kristianstad
Kristianstad
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Asarum
Asarum
9/25/2022Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 23Kristianstads Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Kristianstad51%
×Draw22%
Asarum27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristianstad
1.94
Asarum
1.34

Kristianstad creates 45% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 47 away

creates per match

Kristianstad
1.71
Asarum
1.51

allows per match

Kristianstad
1.18
Asarum
2.17

finishing

Kristianstad+0.00on par
Asarum+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristianstad ↓

Asarum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kristianstad or draw
73%
Kristianstad or Asarum
78%
Draw or Asarum
49%

Winning margin

Kristianstad wins by 2+
29%
Asarum wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kristianstad 1+ goals
86%
Kristianstad 2+ goals
58%
Kristianstad 3+ goals
30%
Asarum 1+ goals
74%
Asarum 2+ goals
39%
Asarum 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kristianstad (draw refunded)
66%
Asarum (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristianstad at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 72 matches

Asarum away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.17 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristianstad attack 1.71 + Asarum defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.94

Asarum attack 1.51 + Kristianstad defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kristianstad scores more
51%
level
22%
Asarum scores more
27%

Kristianstad at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kristianstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: Kristianstad 1–4 Asarum

Asarum beat Kristianstad 4-1 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Kristianstads Fotbollsarena in Kristianstad.