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Kristall MEZ vs Torpedo Moskva — Cup 2019

Kristall MEZ
Kristall MEZ
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
9/24/2025CupCup · Regions Path - 4th RoundStadion Fakel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kristall MEZ38%
×Draw24%
Torpedo Moskva38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristall MEZ
1.52
Torpedo Moskva
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kristall MEZ
1.67
Torpedo Moskva
1.38

allows per match

Kristall MEZ
1.67
Torpedo Moskva
1.38

finishing

Kristall MEZ+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristall MEZ ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kristall MEZ or draw
62%
Kristall MEZ or Torpedo Moskva
76%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
62%

Winning margin

Kristall MEZ wins by 2+
18%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kristall MEZ 1+ goals
78%
Kristall MEZ 2+ goals
45%
Kristall MEZ 3+ goals
20%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
78%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
45%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kristall MEZ (draw refunded)
50%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristall MEZ at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristall MEZ attack 1.67 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.38 + Kristall MEZ defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kristall MEZ scores more
38%
level
24%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
38%

Kristall MEZ at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kristall MEZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Kristall MEZ 1–3 Torpedo Moskva

Torpedo Moskva beat Kristall MEZ 3-1 in Cup on September 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Fakel in Voronezh.