Kristall MEZ 3–2 Murom: Result & Stats | Cup

Kristall MEZ

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Murom

8/20/2025

Cup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundStadion Fakel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kristall MEZ42%

×Draw24%

Murom34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristall MEZExpected goals in this matchMurom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.44

Kristall MEZ

1.64

Murom

1.44

Kristall MEZ creates 14% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

1.20

1.67

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Kristall MEZ

1.67

Murom

1.20

allows per match

Kristall MEZ

1.67

Murom

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kristall MEZ+0.00on par

Murom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristall MEZ ↓

Murom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kristall MEZ or draw

66%

Kristall MEZ or Murom

76%

Draw or Murom

58%

Winning margin

Kristall MEZ wins by 2+

22%

Murom wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kristall MEZ 1+ goals

81%

Kristall MEZ 2+ goals

49%

Kristall MEZ 3+ goals

23%

Murom 1+ goals

76%

Murom 2+ goals

42%

Murom 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kristall MEZ (draw refunded)

56%

Murom (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristall MEZ at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Murom away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristall MEZ attack 1.67 + Murom defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Murom attack 1.20 + Kristall MEZ defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kristall MEZ scores more

42%

level

24%

Murom scores more

34%

Kristall MEZ at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kristall MEZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff