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Kristall MEZ vs FK Spartak Tambov — Cup 2019

Kristall MEZ
Kristall MEZ
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Spartak Tambov
FK Spartak Tambov
9/10/2025CupCup · Regions Path - 3rd RoundStadion Fakel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kristall MEZ53%
×Draw21%
FK Spartak Tambov27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristall MEZ
2.17
FK Spartak Tambov
1.50

Kristall MEZ creates 45% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kristall MEZ
1.67
FK Spartak Tambov
1.33

allows per match

Kristall MEZ
1.67
FK Spartak Tambov
2.67

finishing

Kristall MEZ+0.00on par
FK Spartak Tambov+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristall MEZ ↓

FK Spartak Tambov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kristall MEZ or draw
73%
Kristall MEZ or FK Spartak Tambov
79%
Draw or FK Spartak Tambov
47%

Winning margin

Kristall MEZ wins by 2+
32%
FK Spartak Tambov wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kristall MEZ 1+ goals
89%
Kristall MEZ 2+ goals
64%
Kristall MEZ 3+ goals
36%
FK Spartak Tambov 1+ goals
78%
FK Spartak Tambov 2+ goals
44%
FK Spartak Tambov 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kristall MEZ (draw refunded)
66%
FK Spartak Tambov (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristall MEZ at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

FK Spartak Tambov away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristall MEZ attack 1.67 + FK Spartak Tambov defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

FK Spartak Tambov attack 1.33 + Kristall MEZ defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kristall MEZ scores more
53%
level
21%
FK Spartak Tambov scores more
27%

Kristall MEZ at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kristall MEZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kristall MEZ vs FK Spartak Tambov

Kristall MEZ beat FK Spartak Tambov 1-0 in Cup on September 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Fakel in Voronezh.