Krieschow 5–1 Wismut Gera: Result & Stats

Krieschow

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Wismut Gera

9/14/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 5Sportpark Krieschow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Krieschow64%

×Draw18%

Wismut Gera19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KrieschowExpected goals in this matchWismut Gera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

1.43

Krieschow

2.69

Wismut Gera

1.43

Krieschow creates 88% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 15 away

2.51

creates per match

1.60

1.26

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Krieschow

2.51

Wismut Gera

1.60

allows per match

Krieschow

1.26

Wismut Gera

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krieschow+0.00on par

Wismut Gera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krieschow ↓

Wismut Gera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Krieschow or draw

81%

Krieschow or Wismut Gera

82%

Draw or Wismut Gera

36%

Winning margin

Krieschow wins by 2+

43%

Wismut Gera wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Krieschow 1+ goals

93%

Krieschow 2+ goals

74%

Krieschow 3+ goals

49%

Wismut Gera 1+ goals

76%

Wismut Gera 2+ goals

42%

Wismut Gera 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Krieschow (draw refunded)

77%

Wismut Gera (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krieschow at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.26 · 81 matches

Wismut Gera away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krieschow attack 2.51 + Wismut Gera defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.69

Wismut Gera attack 1.60 + Krieschow defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Krieschow scores more

64%

level

18%

Wismut Gera scores more

19%

Krieschow at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Krieschow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff