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Krieschow vs Motor Marienberg — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Krieschow
Krieschow
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Motor Marienberg
Motor Marienberg
2/24/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 18Sportpark Krieschow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Krieschow78%
×Draw13%
Motor Marienberg9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krieschow
3.05
Motor Marienberg
0.99

Krieschow creates 208% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 15 away

creates per match

Krieschow
2.51
Motor Marienberg
0.73

allows per match

Krieschow
1.26
Motor Marienberg
3.60

finishing

Krieschow+0.00on par
Motor Marienberg+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krieschow ↓

Motor Marienberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Krieschow or draw
91%
Krieschow or Motor Marienberg
87%
Draw or Motor Marienberg
22%

Winning margin

Krieschow wins by 2+
58%
Motor Marienberg wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Krieschow 1+ goals
95%
Krieschow 2+ goals
80%
Krieschow 3+ goals
57%
Motor Marienberg 1+ goals
63%
Motor Marienberg 2+ goals
26%
Motor Marienberg 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Krieschow (draw refunded)
89%
Motor Marienberg (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krieschow at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.26 · 81 matches

Motor Marienberg away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krieschow attack 2.51 + Motor Marienberg defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 3.05

Motor Marienberg attack 0.73 + Krieschow defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Krieschow scores more
78%
level
13%
Motor Marienberg scores more
9%

Krieschow at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Krieschow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Krieschow 4–1 Motor Marienberg

Krieschow beat Motor Marienberg 4-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Krieschow in Kolkwitz.