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Krieschow vs Ludwigsfelde — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Krieschow
Krieschow
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
4/22/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 28Sportpark Krieschow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Krieschow62%
×Draw20%
Ludwigsfelde18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krieschow
2.23
Ludwigsfelde
1.11

Krieschow creates 101% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 50 away

creates per match

Krieschow
2.51
Ludwigsfelde
0.96

allows per match

Krieschow
1.26
Ludwigsfelde
1.96

finishing

Krieschow+0.00on par
Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krieschow ↓

Ludwigsfelde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Krieschow or draw
82%
Krieschow or Ludwigsfelde
80%
Draw or Ludwigsfelde
38%

Winning margin

Krieschow wins by 2+
40%
Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Krieschow 1+ goals
89%
Krieschow 2+ goals
65%
Krieschow 3+ goals
38%
Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
67%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
30%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Krieschow (draw refunded)
78%
Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krieschow at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.26 · 81 matches

Ludwigsfelde away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krieschow attack 2.51 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.23

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.96 + Krieschow defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Krieschow scores more
62%
level
20%
Ludwigsfelde scores more
18%

Krieschow at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Krieschow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krieschow vs Ludwigsfelde

Krieschow beat Ludwigsfelde 3-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Krieschow in Kolkwitz.