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Krieschow vs Budissa Bautzen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Krieschow
Krieschow
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Budissa Bautzen
Budissa Bautzen
2/3/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 15Sportpark Krieschow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Krieschow55%
×Draw20%
Budissa Bautzen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krieschow
2.31
Budissa Bautzen
1.52

Krieschow creates 52% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 77 away

creates per match

Krieschow
2.51
Budissa Bautzen
1.78

allows per match

Krieschow
1.26
Budissa Bautzen
2.12

finishing

Krieschow+0.00on par
Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krieschow ↓

Budissa Bautzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Krieschow or draw
75%
Krieschow or Budissa Bautzen
80%
Draw or Budissa Bautzen
45%

Winning margin

Krieschow wins by 2+
34%
Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Krieschow 1+ goals
90%
Krieschow 2+ goals
67%
Krieschow 3+ goals
40%
Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals
78%
Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals
45%
Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Krieschow (draw refunded)
69%
Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krieschow at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.26 · 81 matches

Budissa Bautzen away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.12 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krieschow attack 2.51 + Budissa Bautzen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.31

Budissa Bautzen attack 1.78 + Krieschow defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Krieschow scores more
55%
level
20%
Budissa Bautzen scores more
25%

Krieschow at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Krieschow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krieschow vs Budissa Bautzen

Krieschow beat Budissa Bautzen 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Krieschow in Kolkwitz.