Budissa Bautzen 2–0 Krieschow: Result & Stats

Budissa Bautzen

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Krieschow

10/2/2025

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 8Stadion Müllerwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Budissa Bautzen43%

×Draw22%

Krieschow35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Budissa BautzenExpected goals in this matchKrieschow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.69

Budissa Bautzen

1.87

Krieschow

1.69

Budissa Bautzen creates 11% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 81 away

2.10

creates per match

2.00

1.39

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Budissa Bautzen

2.10

Krieschow

2.00

allows per match

Budissa Bautzen

1.39

Krieschow

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par

Krieschow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budissa Bautzen ↓

Krieschow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Budissa Bautzen or draw

65%

Budissa Bautzen or Krieschow

78%

Draw or Krieschow

57%

Winning margin

Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+

23%

Krieschow wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals

85%

Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals

56%

Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals

29%

Krieschow 1+ goals

82%

Krieschow 2+ goals

50%

Krieschow 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)

55%

Krieschow (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budissa Bautzen at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.39 · 77 matches

Krieschow away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.64 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budissa Bautzen attack 2.10 + Krieschow defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.87

Krieschow attack 2.00 + Budissa Bautzen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Budissa Bautzen scores more

43%

level

22%

Krieschow scores more

35%

Budissa Bautzen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Budissa Bautzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff