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Kría vs Úlfarnir — Cup 2019

Kría
Kría
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Úlfarnir
Úlfarnir
4/4/2024CupCup · 1st RoundVivaldivöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kría43%
×Draw17%
Úlfarnir39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kría
3.33
Úlfarnir
3.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Kría
3.67
Úlfarnir
2.00

allows per match

Kría
4.33
Úlfarnir
3.00

finishing

Kría+0.00on par
Úlfarnir+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

92%Yes
  • Yes92
  • No8

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kría ↓

Úlfarnir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–23%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–35%
4–44%

Most likely 2–2 (5%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
88%12%4.5
75%25%

Double chance

Kría or draw
61%
Kría or Úlfarnir
83%
Draw or Úlfarnir
57%

Winning margin

Kría wins by 2+
27%
Úlfarnir wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Kría 1+ goals
96%
Kría 2+ goals
84%
Kría 3+ goals
63%
Úlfarnir 1+ goals
96%
Úlfarnir 2+ goals
82%
Úlfarnir 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Kría (draw refunded)
53%
Úlfarnir (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
90%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kría at home — creates 3.67, concedes 4.33 · 6 matches

Úlfarnir away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kría attack 3.67 + Úlfarnir defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.33

Úlfarnir attack 2.00 + Kría defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kría scores more
43%
level
17%
Úlfarnir scores more
39%

Kría at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kría will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Kría 1–2 Úlfarnir

Úlfarnir beat Kría 2-1 in Cup on April 4, 2024.

The match was played at Vivaldivöllurinn in Seltjarnarnes.