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Kría vs ÍBU — Cup 2019

Kría
Kría
FT
5 – 8
HT: 1 – 3
ÍBU
ÍBU
4/9/2022CupCup · 1st RoundVivaldivöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kría61%
×Draw15%
ÍBU23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kría
4.58
ÍBU
2.92

Kría creates 57% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kría
3.67
ÍBU
1.50

allows per match

Kría
4.33
ÍBU
5.50

finishing

Kría+0.00on par
ÍBU+0.00on par

Total goals

97%Over
  • Over97
  • Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

93%Yes
  • Yes93
  • No7

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kría ↓

ÍBU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–21%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–14%
4–25%
4–35%
4–44%

Most likely 3–2 (5%) · grid covers 54% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
97%3%3.5
93%7%4.5
83%17%

Double chance

Kría or draw
77%
Kría or ÍBU
85%
Draw or ÍBU
39%

Winning margin

Kría wins by 2+
44%
ÍBU wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kría 1+ goals
99%
Kría 2+ goals
93%
Kría 3+ goals
80%
ÍBU 1+ goals
94%
ÍBU 2+ goals
78%
ÍBU 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Kría (draw refunded)
72%
ÍBU (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
92%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kría at home — creates 3.67, concedes 4.33 · 6 matches

ÍBU away — creates 1.50, concedes 5.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kría attack 3.67 + ÍBU defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 4.58

ÍBU attack 1.50 + Kría defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kría scores more
61%
level
15%
ÍBU scores more
23%

Kría at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kría will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kría vs ÍBU

ÍBU beat Kría 8-5 in Cup on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Vivaldivöllurinn in Seltjarnarnes.