Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kría vs Afríka — Cup 2019

Kría
Kría
FT
13 – 1
Afríka
Afríka
4/24/2021CupCup · 1st RoundVivaldivöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kría82%
×Draw9%
Afríka9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kría
6.98
Afríka
2.45

Kría creates 185% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kría
3.67
Afríka
0.57

allows per match

Kría
4.33
Afríka
10.29

finishing

Kría+0.00on par
Afríka+0.00on par

Total goals

99%Over
  • Over99
  • Under1

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

91%Yes
  • Yes91
  • No9

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kría ↓

Afríka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–00%
1–10%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 4–2 (5%) · grid covers 35% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
100%0%2.5
99%1%3.5
97%3%4.5
91%9%

Double chance

Kría or draw
91%
Kría or Afríka
91%
Draw or Afríka
18%

Winning margin

Kría wins by 2+
68%
Afríka wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kría 1+ goals
100%
Kría 2+ goals
98%
Kría 3+ goals
93%
Afríka 1+ goals
91%
Afríka 2+ goals
70%
Afríka 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Kría (draw refunded)
91%
Afríka (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
91%
Both score & under 3
0%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kría at home — creates 3.67, concedes 4.33 · 6 matches

Afríka away — creates 0.57, concedes 10.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kría attack 3.67 + Afríka defence 10.29 → ÷2 → 6.98

Afríka attack 0.57 + Kría defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Kría scores more
82%
level
9%
Afríka scores more
9%

Kría at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Kría will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kría vs Afríka

Kría beat Afríka 13-1 in Cup on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Vivaldivöllurinn in Seltjarnarnes.