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Kreuzlingen vs Linth — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Kreuzlingen
Kreuzlingen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Linth
Linth
Unknown 18', 2'
Unknown 5'
5/11/20241. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 28Sportplatz Hafenareal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kreuzlingen52%
×Draw22%
Linth27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kreuzlingen
2.04
Linth
1.42

Kreuzlingen creates 44% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 74 away

creates per match

Kreuzlingen
2.09
Linth
1.47

allows per match

Kreuzlingen
1.38
Linth
2.00

finishing

Kreuzlingen+0.00on par
Linth+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kreuzlingen ↓

Linth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kreuzlingen or draw
73%
Kreuzlingen or Linth
78%
Draw or Linth
48%

Winning margin

Kreuzlingen wins by 2+
30%
Linth wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kreuzlingen 1+ goals
87%
Kreuzlingen 2+ goals
60%
Kreuzlingen 3+ goals
33%
Linth 1+ goals
76%
Linth 2+ goals
41%
Linth 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kreuzlingen (draw refunded)
66%
Linth (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kreuzlingen at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

Linth away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.00 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kreuzlingen attack 2.09 + Linth defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Linth attack 1.47 + Kreuzlingen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kreuzlingen scores more
52%
level
22%
Linth scores more
27%

Kreuzlingen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kreuzlingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
5'
18'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kreuzlingen vs Linth

Kreuzlingen beat Linth 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on May 11, 2024.

Goals: ? (2', 5', 18').

The match was played at Sportplatz Hafenareal in Kreuzlingen.