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Krems vs Waidhofen / Thaya — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Krems
Krems
FT
6 – 1
Waidhofen / Thaya
Waidhofen / Thaya
5/20/2022Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 26Sepp-Doll-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Krems76%
×Draw15%
Waidhofen / Thaya9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krems
2.69
Waidhofen / Thaya
0.84

Krems creates 220% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 55 away

creates per match

Krems
2.83
Waidhofen / Thaya
0.71

allows per match

Krems
0.97
Waidhofen / Thaya
2.55

finishing

Krems+0.00on par
Waidhofen / Thaya+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krems ↓

Waidhofen / Thaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Krems or draw
91%
Krems or Waidhofen / Thaya
85%
Draw or Waidhofen / Thaya
24%

Winning margin

Krems wins by 2+
55%
Waidhofen / Thaya wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Krems 1+ goals
93%
Krems 2+ goals
74%
Krems 3+ goals
49%
Waidhofen / Thaya 1+ goals
57%
Waidhofen / Thaya 2+ goals
21%
Waidhofen / Thaya 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Krems (draw refunded)
89%
Waidhofen / Thaya (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krems at home — creates 2.83, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

Waidhofen / Thaya away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.55 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krems attack 2.83 + Waidhofen / Thaya defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.69

Waidhofen / Thaya attack 0.71 + Krems defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Krems scores more
76%
level
15%
Waidhofen / Thaya scores more
9%

Krems at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Krems will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krems vs Waidhofen / Thaya

Krems beat Waidhofen / Thaya 6-1 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on May 20, 2022.

The match was played at Sepp-Doll-Stadion in Krems.