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Krems vs Retz — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Krems
Krems
FT
4 – 3
Retz
Retz
11/12/2021Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 14Sepp-Doll-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Krems55%
×Draw22%
Retz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krems
1.97
Retz
1.20

Krems creates 64% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 70 away

creates per match

Krems
2.83
Retz
1.43

allows per match

Krems
0.97
Retz
1.11

finishing

Krems+0.00on par
Retz+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krems ↓

Retz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Krems or draw
77%
Krems or Retz
78%
Draw or Retz
45%

Winning margin

Krems wins by 2+
32%
Retz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Krems 1+ goals
86%
Krems 2+ goals
58%
Krems 3+ goals
31%
Retz 1+ goals
70%
Retz 2+ goals
34%
Retz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Krems (draw refunded)
71%
Retz (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krems at home — creates 2.83, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

Retz away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krems attack 2.83 + Retz defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.97

Retz attack 1.43 + Krems defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Krems scores more
55%
level
22%
Retz scores more
23%

Krems at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Krems will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Niederosterreich: Krems 4–3 Retz

Krems beat Retz 4-3 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on November 12, 2021.

The match was played at Sepp-Doll-Stadion in Krems.