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Kremin' II vs UCSA — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Kremin' II
Kremin' II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
UCSA
UCSA
11/10/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 17Kremin'-Arena im. Olega Babaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kremin' II7%
×Draw18%
UCSA75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kremin' II
0.49
UCSA
2.09

UCSA creates 327% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kremin' II
0.52
UCSA
2.15

allows per match

Kremin' II
2.04
UCSA
0.46

finishing

Kremin' II+0.00on par
UCSA+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kremin' II ↓

UCSA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–116%
0–217%
0–312%
0–46%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (17%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kremin' II or draw
25%
Kremin' II or UCSA
82%
Draw or UCSA
93%

Winning margin

Kremin' II wins by 2+
1%
UCSA wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Kremin' II 1+ goals
39%
Kremin' II 2+ goals
9%
Kremin' II 3+ goals
1%
UCSA 1+ goals
88%
UCSA 2+ goals
62%
UCSA 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Kremin' II (draw refunded)
9%
UCSA (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kremin' II at home — creates 0.52, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

UCSA away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kremin' II attack 0.52 + UCSA defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.49

UCSA attack 2.15 + Kremin' II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Kremin' II scores more
7%
level
18%
UCSA scores more
75%

UCSA at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "UCSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kremin' II vs UCSA

UCSA beat Kremin' II 1-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Kremin'-Arena im. Olega Babaeva in Kremenchuk.