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Kremin' II vs Metalurh Zaporizhya II — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Kremin' II
Kremin' II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Metalurh Zaporizhya II
Metalurh Zaporizhya II
8/29/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 4Kremin'-Arena im. Olega Babaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Kremin' II34%
×Draw25%
Metalurh Zaporizhya II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kremin' II
1.36
Metalurh Zaporizhya II
1.52

Metalurh Zaporizhya II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 20 away

creates per match

Kremin' II
0.52
Metalurh Zaporizhya II
1.00

allows per match

Kremin' II
2.04
Metalurh Zaporizhya II
2.20

finishing

Kremin' II+0.00on par
Metalurh Zaporizhya II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kremin' II ↓

Metalurh Zaporizhya II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kremin' II or draw
59%
Kremin' II or Metalurh Zaporizhya II
75%
Draw or Metalurh Zaporizhya II
66%

Winning margin

Kremin' II wins by 2+
15%
Metalurh Zaporizhya II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kremin' II 1+ goals
74%
Kremin' II 2+ goals
39%
Kremin' II 3+ goals
16%
Metalurh Zaporizhya II 1+ goals
78%
Metalurh Zaporizhya II 2+ goals
45%
Metalurh Zaporizhya II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kremin' II (draw refunded)
45%
Metalurh Zaporizhya II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kremin' II at home — creates 0.52, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

Metalurh Zaporizhya II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kremin' II attack 0.52 + Metalurh Zaporizhya II defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Metalurh Zaporizhya II attack 1.00 + Kremin' II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kremin' II scores more
34%
level
25%
Metalurh Zaporizhya II scores more
41%

Metalurh Zaporizhya II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Metalurh Zaporizhya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kremin' II vs Metalurh Zaporizhya II

Metalurh Zaporizhya II beat Kremin' II 2-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on August 29, 2023.

The match was played at Kremin'-Arena im. Olega Babaeva in Kremenchuk.