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Kray vs TVD Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kray
Kray
CANC
13:00
TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
4/25/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 37KrayArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kray39%
×Draw21%
TVD Velbert39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kray
1.90
TVD Velbert
1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 72 away

creates per match

Kray
1.73
TVD Velbert
1.38

allows per match

Kray
2.44
TVD Velbert
2.07

finishing

Kray+0.00on par
TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kray ↓

TVD Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Kray or draw
61%
Kray or TVD Velbert
79%
Draw or TVD Velbert
61%

Winning margin

Kray wins by 2+
21%
TVD Velbert wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kray 1+ goals
85%
Kray 2+ goals
56%
Kray 3+ goals
29%
TVD Velbert 1+ goals
85%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
57%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Kray (draw refunded)
50%
TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kray at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.44 · 41 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kray attack 1.73 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.90

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + Kray defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kray scores more
39%
level
21%
TVD Velbert scores more
39%

Kray at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kray host TVD Velbert

April 25, 2021: Kray take on TVD Velbert in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kray host TVD Velbert at KrayArena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.