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Kray vs TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kray
Kray
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
4/24/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - Relegation Round - 4KrayArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Kray39%
×Draw22%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kray
1.84
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 40 away

creates per match

Kray
1.73
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.20

allows per match

Kray
2.44
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.95

finishing

Kray+0.00on par
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kray ↓

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kray or draw
61%
Kray or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
78%
Draw or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
61%

Winning margin

Kray wins by 2+
21%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kray 1+ goals
84%
Kray 2+ goals
55%
Kray 3+ goals
28%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals
84%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals
54%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Kray (draw refunded)
51%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kray at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.44 · 41 matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kray attack 1.73 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.84

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.20 + Kray defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kray scores more
39%
level
22%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more
39%

Kray at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Kray 1–1 TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

Kray and TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at KrayArena in Essen.