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Kray vs SW Essen — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kray
Kray
CANC
13:00
SW Essen
SW Essen
4/5/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 34KrayArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kray32%
×Draw21%
SW Essen47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kray
1.68
SW Essen
2.08

SW Essen creates 24% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 91 away

creates per match

Kray
1.73
SW Essen
1.73

allows per match

Kray
2.44
SW Essen
1.63

finishing

Kray+0.00on par
SW Essen+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kray ↓

SW Essen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kray or draw
53%
Kray or SW Essen
79%
Draw or SW Essen
68%

Winning margin

Kray wins by 2+
15%
SW Essen wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Kray 1+ goals
81%
Kray 2+ goals
50%
Kray 3+ goals
24%
SW Essen 1+ goals
87%
SW Essen 2+ goals
61%
SW Essen 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Kray (draw refunded)
40%
SW Essen (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kray at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.44 · 41 matches

SW Essen away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.63 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kray attack 1.73 + SW Essen defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.68

SW Essen attack 1.73 + Kray defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kray scores more
32%
level
21%
SW Essen scores more
47%

SW Essen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SW Essen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kray vs SW Essen — Match Preview

Kray face SW Essen on April 5, 2021 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kray host SW Essen at KrayArena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.