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Kray vs SC Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kray
Kray
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
SC Velbert
SC Velbert
5/29/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - Relegation Round - 9KrayArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kray50%
×Draw20%
SC Velbert30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kray
2.27
SC Velbert
1.72

Kray creates 32% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 22 away

creates per match

Kray
1.73
SC Velbert
1.00

allows per match

Kray
2.44
SC Velbert
2.82

finishing

Kray+0.00on par
SC Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kray ↓

SC Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Kray or draw
70%
Kray or SC Velbert
80%
Draw or SC Velbert
50%

Winning margin

Kray wins by 2+
30%
SC Velbert wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kray 1+ goals
90%
Kray 2+ goals
66%
Kray 3+ goals
39%
SC Velbert 1+ goals
82%
SC Velbert 2+ goals
51%
SC Velbert 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kray (draw refunded)
63%
SC Velbert (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kray at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.44 · 41 matches

SC Velbert away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kray attack 1.73 + SC Velbert defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.27

SC Velbert attack 1.00 + Kray defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kray scores more
50%
level
20%
SC Velbert scores more
30%

Kray at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Kray 0–4 SC Velbert

SC Velbert beat Kray 4-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at KrayArena in Essen.