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Kray vs Kleve — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kray
Kray
CANC
14:00
Kleve
Kleve
2/28/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 27KrayArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kray39%
×Draw22%
Kleve40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kray
1.85
Kleve
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 89 away

creates per match

Kray
1.73
Kleve
1.31

allows per match

Kray
2.44
Kleve
1.97

finishing

Kray+0.00on par
Kleve+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kray ↓

Kleve →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kray or draw
60%
Kray or Kleve
78%
Draw or Kleve
61%

Winning margin

Kray wins by 2+
20%
Kleve wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kray 1+ goals
84%
Kray 2+ goals
55%
Kray 3+ goals
28%
Kleve 1+ goals
85%
Kleve 2+ goals
56%
Kleve 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Kray (draw refunded)
49%
Kleve (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kray at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.44 · 41 matches

Kleve away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.97 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kray attack 1.73 + Kleve defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.85

Kleve attack 1.31 + Kray defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kray scores more
39%
level
22%
Kleve scores more
40%

Kleve at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kleve will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kray face Kleve (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein returns with Kray hosting Kleve. Match starts February 28, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kray host Kleve at KrayArena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.