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Kray vs Jahn Hiesfeld — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kray
Kray
CANC
13:00
Jahn Hiesfeld
Jahn Hiesfeld
5/9/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 39KrayArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kray42%
×Draw21%
Jahn Hiesfeld37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kray
2.09
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 22 away

creates per match

Kray
1.73
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.50

allows per match

Kray
2.44
Jahn Hiesfeld
2.45

finishing

Kray+0.00on par
Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kray ↓

Jahn Hiesfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Kray or draw
63%
Kray or Jahn Hiesfeld
79%
Draw or Jahn Hiesfeld
58%

Winning margin

Kray wins by 2+
23%
Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kray 1+ goals
88%
Kray 2+ goals
62%
Kray 3+ goals
34%
Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals
86%
Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals
58%
Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Kray (draw refunded)
53%
Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kray at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.44 · 41 matches

Jahn Hiesfeld away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kray attack 1.73 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.09

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 1.50 + Kray defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kray scores more
42%
level
21%
Jahn Hiesfeld scores more
37%

Kray at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kray vs Jahn Hiesfeld — Match Preview

Kray face Jahn Hiesfeld on May 9, 2021 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kray host Jahn Hiesfeld at KrayArena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.