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Kray vs Hilden — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kray
Kray
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Hilden
Hilden
8/10/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 2KrayArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kray26%
×Draw20%
Hilden54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kray
1.59
Hilden
2.31

Hilden creates 45% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 91 away

creates per match

Kray
1.73
Hilden
2.19

allows per match

Kray
2.44
Hilden
1.45

finishing

Kray+0.00on par
Hilden+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kray ↓

Hilden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Kray or draw
46%
Kray or Hilden
80%
Draw or Hilden
74%

Winning margin

Kray wins by 2+
12%
Hilden wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Kray 1+ goals
80%
Kray 2+ goals
47%
Kray 3+ goals
21%
Hilden 1+ goals
90%
Hilden 2+ goals
67%
Hilden 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Kray (draw refunded)
33%
Hilden (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kray at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.44 · 41 matches

Hilden away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.45 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kray attack 1.73 + Hilden defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.59

Hilden attack 2.19 + Kray defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kray scores more
26%
level
20%
Hilden scores more
54%

Hilden at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hilden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kray 1 – 3 Hilden

Hilden beat Kray 3-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on August 10, 2022.

The match was played at KrayArena in Essen.