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Kray vs Cronenberger SC — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kray
Kray
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Cronenberger SC
Cronenberger SC
9/25/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 10KrayArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kray46%
×Draw21%
Cronenberger SC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kray
2.10
Cronenberger SC
1.78

Kray creates 18% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 42 away

creates per match

Kray
1.73
Cronenberger SC
1.12

allows per match

Kray
2.44
Cronenberger SC
2.48

finishing

Kray+0.00on par
Cronenberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kray ↓

Cronenberger SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Kray or draw
67%
Kray or Cronenberger SC
79%
Draw or Cronenberger SC
54%

Winning margin

Kray wins by 2+
26%
Cronenberger SC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kray 1+ goals
88%
Kray 2+ goals
62%
Kray 3+ goals
35%
Cronenberger SC 1+ goals
83%
Cronenberger SC 2+ goals
53%
Cronenberger SC 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Kray (draw refunded)
58%
Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kray at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.44 · 41 matches

Cronenberger SC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.48 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kray attack 1.73 + Cronenberger SC defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.10

Cronenberger SC attack 1.12 + Kray defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kray scores more
46%
level
21%
Cronenberger SC scores more
33%

Kray at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Kray 1–3 Cronenberger SC

Cronenberger SC beat Kray 3-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at KrayArena in Essen.