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Krasnyy-SGAFKST vs Strogino — Second League - Group 3 2020

Krasnyy-SGAFKST
Krasnyy-SGAFKST
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Strogino
Strogino
9/6/2020Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadion SGAFKST

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Krasnyy-SGAFKST45%
×Draw27%
Strogino29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnyy-SGAFKST
1.42
Strogino
1.08

Krasnyy-SGAFKST creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 92 away

creates per match

Krasnyy-SGAFKST
1.20
Strogino
1.10

allows per match

Krasnyy-SGAFKST
1.07
Strogino
1.64

finishing

Krasnyy-SGAFKST+0.00on par
Strogino+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnyy-SGAFKST ↓

Strogino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Krasnyy-SGAFKST or draw
71%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST or Strogino
73%
Draw or Strogino
55%

Winning margin

Krasnyy-SGAFKST wins by 2+
22%
Strogino wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Krasnyy-SGAFKST 1+ goals
76%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST 2+ goals
41%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST 3+ goals
17%
Strogino 1+ goals
66%
Strogino 2+ goals
29%
Strogino 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Krasnyy-SGAFKST (draw refunded)
61%
Strogino (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnyy-SGAFKST at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Strogino away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.64 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnyy-SGAFKST attack 1.20 + Strogino defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Strogino attack 1.10 + Krasnyy-SGAFKST defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Krasnyy-SGAFKST scores more
45%
level
27%
Strogino scores more
29%

Krasnyy-SGAFKST at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Krasnyy-SGAFKST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Krasnyy-SGAFKST 0–1 Strogino

Strogino beat Krasnyy-SGAFKST 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion SGAFKST in Smolensk.