Krasnyy-SGAFKST 2–1 Salyut-Belgorod: Result & Stats

Krasnyy-SGAFKST

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Salyut-Belgorod

Y. Marin 8'

A. Vulfov 4'

D. Gribanov 76' (pen)

5/3/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Stadion SGAFKST

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Krasnyy-SGAFKST30%

×Draw27%

Salyut-Belgorod44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krasnyy-SGAFKSTExpected goals in this matchSalyut-Belgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.39

Krasnyy-SGAFKST

1.10

Salyut-Belgorod

1.39

Salyut-Belgorod creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 85 away

1.20

creates per match

1.71

1.07

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Krasnyy-SGAFKST

1.20

Salyut-Belgorod

1.71

allows per match

Krasnyy-SGAFKST

1.07

Salyut-Belgorod

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krasnyy-SGAFKST+0.00on par

Salyut-Belgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnyy-SGAFKST ↓

Salyut-Belgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Krasnyy-SGAFKST or draw

56%

Krasnyy-SGAFKST or Salyut-Belgorod

73%

Draw or Salyut-Belgorod

70%

Winning margin

Krasnyy-SGAFKST wins by 2+

12%

Salyut-Belgorod wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Krasnyy-SGAFKST 1+ goals

67%

Krasnyy-SGAFKST 2+ goals

30%

Krasnyy-SGAFKST 3+ goals

10%

Salyut-Belgorod 1+ goals

75%

Salyut-Belgorod 2+ goals

40%

Salyut-Belgorod 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Krasnyy-SGAFKST (draw refunded)

41%

Salyut-Belgorod (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnyy-SGAFKST at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Salyut-Belgorod away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnyy-SGAFKST attack 1.20 + Salyut-Belgorod defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Salyut-Belgorod attack 1.71 + Krasnyy-SGAFKST defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Krasnyy-SGAFKST scores more

30%

level

27%

Salyut-Belgorod scores more

44%

Salyut-Belgorod at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Salyut-Belgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

8'

27'

27'

32'

E. Khudobko← P. Pinaev

46'

A. Sukhanov← R. Drozdov

46'

D. Khayrulin← I. Fedorov

52'

S. Yurjev← Y. Marin

76'

D. GribanovPenalty

80'

K. Gordeev← D. Degtev

81'

A. Kashperskiy← S. Belyakov

82'

M. Shakaia← R. Kurazhov

89'

M. Kucheryavchenko← S. Manaev

Krasnyy-SGAFKST

Salyut-Belgorod

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Marin

Manager: A. Medvedev

46'▲A. Sukhanov←▼R. Drozdov

46'▲D. Khayrulin←▼I. Fedorov

52'▲S. Yurjev←▼Y. Marin

81'▲A. Kashperskiy←▼S. Belyakov

82'▲M. Shakaia←▼R. Kurazhov

Krasnyy-SGAFKST substitutes

SukhanovKhayrulinYurjevKashperskiyShakaia

Manager: V. Esipov

32'▲E. Khudobko←▼P. Pinaev

80'▲K. Gordeev←▼D. Degtev

89'▲M. Kucheryavchenko←▼S. Manaev

Salyut-Belgorod substitutes

KhudobkoGordeevKucheryavchenko