Krasnyy-SGAFKST 0–1 Metallurg Vidnoye

Krasnyy-SGAFKST

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Metallurg Vidnoye

5/30/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 27Stadion SGAFKST

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Krasnyy-SGAFKST63%

×Draw21%

Metallurg Vidnoye16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krasnyy-SGAFKSTExpected goals in this matchMetallurg Vidnoye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.92

Krasnyy-SGAFKST

2.04

Metallurg Vidnoye

0.92

Krasnyy-SGAFKST creates 122% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

1.20

creates per match

0.77

1.07

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Krasnyy-SGAFKST

1.20

Metallurg Vidnoye

0.77

allows per match

Krasnyy-SGAFKST

1.07

Metallurg Vidnoye

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krasnyy-SGAFKST+0.00on par

Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnyy-SGAFKST ↓

Metallurg Vidnoye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Krasnyy-SGAFKST or draw

84%

Krasnyy-SGAFKST or Metallurg Vidnoye

79%

Draw or Metallurg Vidnoye

37%

Winning margin

Krasnyy-SGAFKST wins by 2+

39%

Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Krasnyy-SGAFKST 1+ goals

87%

Krasnyy-SGAFKST 2+ goals

60%

Krasnyy-SGAFKST 3+ goals

33%

Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals

60%

Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals

23%

Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Krasnyy-SGAFKST (draw refunded)

80%

Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnyy-SGAFKST at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Metallurg Vidnoye away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnyy-SGAFKST attack 1.20 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.04

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 0.77 + Krasnyy-SGAFKST defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Krasnyy-SGAFKST scores more

63%

level

21%

Metallurg Vidnoye scores more

16%

Krasnyy-SGAFKST at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Krasnyy-SGAFKST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff