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Krasnyy-SGAFKST vs FK Sokol Saratov — Second League - Group 3 2020

Krasnyy-SGAFKST
Krasnyy-SGAFKST
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
11/3/2020Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Stadion SGAFKST

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Krasnyy-SGAFKST29%
×Draw29%
FK Sokol Saratov42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnyy-SGAFKST
0.96
FK Sokol Saratov
1.23

FK Sokol Saratov creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 48 away

creates per match

Krasnyy-SGAFKST
1.20
FK Sokol Saratov
1.38

allows per match

Krasnyy-SGAFKST
1.07
FK Sokol Saratov
0.73

finishing

Krasnyy-SGAFKST+0.00on par
FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnyy-SGAFKST ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Krasnyy-SGAFKST or draw
58%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST or FK Sokol Saratov
71%
Draw or FK Sokol Saratov
71%

Winning margin

Krasnyy-SGAFKST wins by 2+
10%
FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Krasnyy-SGAFKST 1+ goals
62%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST 2+ goals
25%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST 3+ goals
7%
FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
71%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
35%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Krasnyy-SGAFKST (draw refunded)
40%
FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnyy-SGAFKST at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnyy-SGAFKST attack 1.20 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.96

FK Sokol Saratov attack 1.38 + Krasnyy-SGAFKST defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Krasnyy-SGAFKST scores more
29%
level
29%
FK Sokol Saratov scores more
42%

FK Sokol Saratov at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Krasnyy-SGAFKST 0–1 FK Sokol Saratov

FK Sokol Saratov beat Krasnyy-SGAFKST 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on November 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion SGAFKST in Smolensk.