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Krasnyy-SGAFKST vs Fakel II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Krasnyy-SGAFKST
Krasnyy-SGAFKST
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fakel II
Fakel II
4/2/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Stadion SGAFKST

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Krasnyy-SGAFKST61%
×Draw23%
Fakel II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnyy-SGAFKST
1.79
Fakel II
0.80

Krasnyy-SGAFKST creates 124% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Krasnyy-SGAFKST
1.20
Fakel II
0.53

allows per match

Krasnyy-SGAFKST
1.07
Fakel II
2.37

finishing

Krasnyy-SGAFKST+0.00on par
Fakel II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnyy-SGAFKST ↓

Fakel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Krasnyy-SGAFKST or draw
84%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST or Fakel II
77%
Draw or Fakel II
39%

Winning margin

Krasnyy-SGAFKST wins by 2+
35%
Fakel II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Krasnyy-SGAFKST 1+ goals
83%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST 2+ goals
53%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST 3+ goals
26%
Fakel II 1+ goals
55%
Fakel II 2+ goals
19%
Fakel II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Krasnyy-SGAFKST (draw refunded)
79%
Fakel II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnyy-SGAFKST at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Fakel II away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnyy-SGAFKST attack 1.20 + Fakel II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.79

Fakel II attack 0.53 + Krasnyy-SGAFKST defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Krasnyy-SGAFKST scores more
61%
level
23%
Fakel II scores more
16%

Krasnyy-SGAFKST at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Krasnyy-SGAFKST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnyy-SGAFKST vs Fakel II

Fakel II beat Krasnyy-SGAFKST 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on April 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion SGAFKST in Smolensk.