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Krasnodar W vs Zvezda Perm — Supreme Division Women 2020

Krasnodar W
Krasnodar W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zvezda Perm
Zvezda Perm
8/16/2020Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 4Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Krasnodar W26%
×Draw31%
Zvezda Perm43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar W
0.78
Zvezda Perm
1.11

Zvezda Perm creates 42% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 7 away

creates per match

Krasnodar W
1.13
Zvezda Perm
0.86

allows per match

Krasnodar W
1.36
Zvezda Perm
0.43

finishing

Krasnodar W+0.00on par
Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar W ↓

Zvezda Perm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Krasnodar W or draw
57%
Krasnodar W or Zvezda Perm
69%
Draw or Zvezda Perm
74%

Winning margin

Krasnodar W wins by 2+
8%
Zvezda Perm wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Krasnodar W 1+ goals
54%
Krasnodar W 2+ goals
18%
Krasnodar W 3+ goals
4%
Zvezda Perm 1+ goals
67%
Zvezda Perm 2+ goals
30%
Zvezda Perm 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar W (draw refunded)
37%
Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.36 · 75 matches

Zvezda Perm away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar W attack 1.13 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.78

Zvezda Perm attack 0.86 + Krasnodar W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Krasnodar W scores more
26%
level
31%
Zvezda Perm scores more
43%

Zvezda Perm at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Supreme Division Women: Krasnodar W 1–1 Zvezda Perm

Krasnodar W and Zvezda Perm drew 1-1 in Supreme Division Women on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.