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Krasnodar vs Ural — Premier League 2018

Krasnodar
Krasnodar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ural
Ural
4/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Stadion FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Krasnodar57%
×Draw23%
Ural19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar
1.76
Ural
0.91

Krasnodar creates 93% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 92 away

creates per match

Krasnodar
1.92
Ural
0.89

allows per match

Krasnodar
0.93
Ural
1.60

finishing

Krasnodar+0.00on par
Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar ↓

Ural →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Krasnodar or draw
81%
Krasnodar or Ural
77%
Draw or Ural
43%

Winning margin

Krasnodar wins by 2+
32%
Ural wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Krasnodar 1+ goals
83%
Krasnodar 2+ goals
52%
Krasnodar 3+ goals
26%
Ural 1+ goals
60%
Ural 2+ goals
23%
Ural 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar (draw refunded)
75%
Ural (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.93 · 120 matches

Ural away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.60 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar attack 1.92 + Ural defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.76

Ural attack 0.89 + Krasnodar defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Krasnodar scores more
57%
level
23%
Ural scores more
19%

Krasnodar at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar vs Ural

Krasnodar and Ural drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.