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Krasnodar U20 vs Spartak Moskva U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Krasnodar U20
Krasnodar U20
FT
1 – 1
Spartak Moskva U20
Spartak Moskva U20
9/29/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 4Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Krasnodar U2043%
×Draw25%
Spartak Moskva U2032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar U20
1.55
Spartak Moskva U20
1.32

Krasnodar U20 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Krasnodar U20
1.85
Spartak Moskva U20
1.45

allows per match

Krasnodar U20
1.20
Spartak Moskva U20
1.25

finishing

Krasnodar U20+0.00on par
Spartak Moskva U20+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar U20 ↓

Spartak Moskva U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Krasnodar U20 or draw
68%
Krasnodar U20 or Spartak Moskva U20
75%
Draw or Spartak Moskva U20
57%

Winning margin

Krasnodar U20 wins by 2+
21%
Spartak Moskva U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Krasnodar U20 1+ goals
79%
Krasnodar U20 2+ goals
46%
Krasnodar U20 3+ goals
20%
Spartak Moskva U20 1+ goals
73%
Spartak Moskva U20 2+ goals
38%
Spartak Moskva U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar U20 (draw refunded)
57%
Spartak Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar U20 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Spartak Moskva U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar U20 attack 1.85 + Spartak Moskva U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.55

Spartak Moskva U20 attack 1.45 + Krasnodar U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Krasnodar U20 scores more
43%
level
25%
Spartak Moskva U20 scores more
32%

Krasnodar U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Krasnodar U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar U20 vs Spartak Moskva U20

Krasnodar U20 and Spartak Moskva U20 drew 1-1 in Youth Championship on September 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.