Krasnodar U20 2–0 Rotor Volgograd U20

Krasnodar U20

FT

2 – 0

Rotor Volgograd U20

11/19/2020

Youth Championship · Round 10Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Krasnodar U2049%

×Draw22%

Rotor Volgograd U2028%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krasnodar U20Expected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.39

Krasnodar U20

1.89

Rotor Volgograd U20

1.39

Krasnodar U20 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

1.85

creates per match

1.57

1.20

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Krasnodar U20

1.85

Rotor Volgograd U20

1.57

allows per match

Krasnodar U20

1.20

Rotor Volgograd U20

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krasnodar U20+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar U20 ↓

Rotor Volgograd U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Krasnodar U20 or draw

72%

Krasnodar U20 or Rotor Volgograd U20

78%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd U20

51%

Winning margin

Krasnodar U20 wins by 2+

27%

Rotor Volgograd U20 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Krasnodar U20 1+ goals

85%

Krasnodar U20 2+ goals

56%

Krasnodar U20 3+ goals

29%

Rotor Volgograd U20 1+ goals

75%

Rotor Volgograd U20 2+ goals

40%

Rotor Volgograd U20 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar U20 (draw refunded)

63%

Rotor Volgograd U20 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar U20 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Rotor Volgograd U20 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar U20 attack 1.85 + Rotor Volgograd U20 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.89

Rotor Volgograd U20 attack 1.57 + Krasnodar U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Krasnodar U20 scores more

49%

level

22%

Rotor Volgograd U20 scores more

28%

Krasnodar U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Krasnodar U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff