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Krasnodar U20 vs Orenburg U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Krasnodar U20
Krasnodar U20
FT
0 – 1
Orenburg U20
Orenburg U20
10/27/2019Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 14Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Krasnodar U2056%
×Draw23%
Orenburg U2022%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar U20
1.83
Orenburg U20
1.05

Krasnodar U20 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

creates per match

Krasnodar U20
1.85
Orenburg U20
0.91

allows per match

Krasnodar U20
1.20
Orenburg U20
1.82

finishing

Krasnodar U20+0.00on par
Orenburg U20+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar U20 ↓

Orenburg U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Krasnodar U20 or draw
78%
Krasnodar U20 or Orenburg U20
77%
Draw or Orenburg U20
44%

Winning margin

Krasnodar U20 wins by 2+
32%
Orenburg U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Krasnodar U20 1+ goals
84%
Krasnodar U20 2+ goals
54%
Krasnodar U20 3+ goals
28%
Orenburg U20 1+ goals
65%
Orenburg U20 2+ goals
28%
Orenburg U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar U20 (draw refunded)
72%
Orenburg U20 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar U20 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Orenburg U20 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar U20 attack 1.85 + Orenburg U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.83

Orenburg U20 attack 0.91 + Krasnodar U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Krasnodar U20 scores more
56%
level
23%
Orenburg U20 scores more
22%

Krasnodar U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Krasnodar U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar U20 vs Orenburg U20

Orenburg U20 beat Krasnodar U20 1-0 in Youth Championship on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.