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Krasnodar U20 vs Krylya Sovetov U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Krasnodar U20
Krasnodar U20
FT
1 – 3
Krylya Sovetov U20
Krylya Sovetov U20
9/15/2019Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 9Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Krasnodar U2041%
×Draw22%
Krylya Sovetov U2037%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar U20
1.83
Krylya Sovetov U20
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

creates per match

Krasnodar U20
1.85
Krylya Sovetov U20
2.27

allows per match

Krasnodar U20
1.20
Krylya Sovetov U20
1.82

finishing

Krasnodar U20+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov U20+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar U20 ↓

Krylya Sovetov U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Krasnodar U20 or draw
63%
Krasnodar U20 or Krylya Sovetov U20
78%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov U20
59%

Winning margin

Krasnodar U20 wins by 2+
22%
Krylya Sovetov U20 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Krasnodar U20 1+ goals
84%
Krasnodar U20 2+ goals
54%
Krasnodar U20 3+ goals
28%
Krylya Sovetov U20 1+ goals
82%
Krylya Sovetov U20 2+ goals
52%
Krylya Sovetov U20 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar U20 (draw refunded)
53%
Krylya Sovetov U20 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar U20 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Krylya Sovetov U20 away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar U20 attack 1.85 + Krylya Sovetov U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.83

Krylya Sovetov U20 attack 2.27 + Krasnodar U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Krasnodar U20 scores more
41%
level
22%
Krylya Sovetov U20 scores more
37%

Krasnodar U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Krasnodar U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar U20 vs Krylya Sovetov U20

Krylya Sovetov U20 beat Krasnodar U20 3-1 in Youth Championship on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.