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Krasnodar U20 vs Dinamo Moskva U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Krasnodar U20
Krasnodar U20
FT
3 – 0
Dinamo Moskva U20
Dinamo Moskva U20
I. Manelov 90+2' (pen)
R. Apekov 82'
I. Gubzhokov 21'
12/15/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 14Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Krasnodar U2042%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Moskva U2034%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar U20
1.58
Dinamo Moskva U20
1.40

Krasnodar U20 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Krasnodar U20
1.85
Dinamo Moskva U20
1.60

allows per match

Krasnodar U20
1.20
Dinamo Moskva U20
1.30

finishing

Krasnodar U20+0.00on par
Dinamo Moskva U20+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar U20 ↓

Dinamo Moskva U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Krasnodar U20 or draw
66%
Krasnodar U20 or Dinamo Moskva U20
76%
Draw or Dinamo Moskva U20
58%

Winning margin

Krasnodar U20 wins by 2+
21%
Dinamo Moskva U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Krasnodar U20 1+ goals
79%
Krasnodar U20 2+ goals
47%
Krasnodar U20 3+ goals
21%
Dinamo Moskva U20 1+ goals
75%
Dinamo Moskva U20 2+ goals
41%
Dinamo Moskva U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar U20 (draw refunded)
55%
Dinamo Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar U20 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Dinamo Moskva U20 away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar U20 attack 1.85 + Dinamo Moskva U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.58

Dinamo Moskva U20 attack 1.60 + Krasnodar U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Krasnodar U20 scores more
42%
level
24%
Dinamo Moskva U20 scores more
34%

Krasnodar U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Krasnodar U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
I. Gubzhokov
82'
R. Apekov
90+2'
M. Demanov
90+2'
I. ManelovPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Krasnodar U20 3 – 0 Dinamo Moskva U20

Krasnodar U20 beat Dinamo Moskva U20 3-0 in Youth Championship on December 15, 2020.

Goals: I. Gubzhokov (21'), R. Apekov (82'), I. Manelov (90+2' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.