Krasnodar U19 5–0 Orenburg U19: Result & Stats

Krasnodar U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Orenburg U19

10/20/2023

Youth Championship · Round 14Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Krasnodar U1975%

×Draw15%

Orenburg U1910%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krasnodar U19Expected goals in this matchOrenburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

0.89

Krasnodar U19

2.71

Orenburg U19

0.89

Krasnodar U19 creates 204% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 38 away

2.76

creates per match

0.79

0.99

allows per match

2.66

creates per match

Krasnodar U19

2.76

Orenburg U19

0.79

allows per match

Krasnodar U19

0.99

Orenburg U19

2.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krasnodar U19+0.00on par

Orenburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar U19 ↓

Orenburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Krasnodar U19 or draw

90%

Krasnodar U19 or Orenburg U19

85%

Draw or Orenburg U19

25%

Winning margin

Krasnodar U19 wins by 2+

54%

Orenburg U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Krasnodar U19 1+ goals

93%

Krasnodar U19 2+ goals

75%

Krasnodar U19 3+ goals

50%

Orenburg U19 1+ goals

59%

Orenburg U19 2+ goals

22%

Orenburg U19 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar U19 (draw refunded)

88%

Orenburg U19 (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar U19 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.99 · 80 matches

Orenburg U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar U19 attack 2.76 + Orenburg U19 defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 2.71

Orenburg U19 attack 0.79 + Krasnodar U19 defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Krasnodar U19 scores more

75%

level

15%

Orenburg U19 scores more

10%

Krasnodar U19 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Krasnodar U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff