Krasnodar U19 2–1 Khimki U20: Result & Stats

Krasnodar U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Khimki U20

9/16/2022

Youth Championship · Round 11Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Krasnodar U1965%

×Draw18%

Khimki U2017%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krasnodar U19Expected goals in this matchKhimki U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.18

Krasnodar U19

2.48

Khimki U20

1.18

Krasnodar U19 creates 110% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 42 away

2.76

creates per match

1.36

0.99

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Krasnodar U19

2.76

Khimki U20

1.36

allows per match

Krasnodar U19

0.99

Khimki U20

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krasnodar U19+0.00on par

Khimki U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar U19 ↓

Khimki U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Krasnodar U19 or draw

83%

Krasnodar U19 or Khimki U20

82%

Draw or Khimki U20

35%

Winning margin

Krasnodar U19 wins by 2+

43%

Khimki U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Krasnodar U19 1+ goals

92%

Krasnodar U19 2+ goals

70%

Krasnodar U19 3+ goals

44%

Khimki U20 1+ goals

69%

Khimki U20 2+ goals

33%

Khimki U20 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar U19 (draw refunded)

80%

Khimki U20 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar U19 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.99 · 80 matches

Khimki U20 away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar U19 attack 2.76 + Khimki U20 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.48

Khimki U20 attack 1.36 + Krasnodar U19 defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Krasnodar U19 scores more

65%

level

18%

Khimki U20 scores more

17%

Krasnodar U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Krasnodar U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff