Krasnodar III 5–3 Tuapse: Result & Stats

Krasnodar III

FT

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Tuapse

10/22/2020

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Krasnodar III53%

×Draw21%

Tuapse26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krasnodar IIIExpected goals in this matchTuapse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.48

Krasnodar III

2.19

Tuapse

1.48

Krasnodar III creates 48% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 32 away

1.38

creates per match

1.09

1.88

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Krasnodar III

1.38

Tuapse

1.09

allows per match

Krasnodar III

1.88

Tuapse

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krasnodar III+0.00on par

Tuapse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar III ↓

Tuapse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Krasnodar III or draw

74%

Krasnodar III or Tuapse

79%

Draw or Tuapse

47%

Winning margin

Krasnodar III wins by 2+

32%

Tuapse wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Krasnodar III 1+ goals

89%

Krasnodar III 2+ goals

64%

Krasnodar III 3+ goals

37%

Tuapse 1+ goals

77%

Tuapse 2+ goals

43%

Tuapse 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar III (draw refunded)

67%

Tuapse (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar III at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Tuapse away — creates 1.09, concedes 3.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar III attack 1.38 + Tuapse defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.19

Tuapse attack 1.09 + Krasnodar III defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Krasnodar III scores more

53%

level

21%

Tuapse scores more

26%

Krasnodar III at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Krasnodar III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff