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Krasnodar III vs SKA Rostov — Second League - Group 1 2020

Krasnodar III
Krasnodar III
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
SKA Rostov
SKA Rostov
10/30/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Krasnodar III27%
×Draw23%
SKA Rostov50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar III
1.28
SKA Rostov
1.83

SKA Rostov creates 43% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 58 away

creates per match

Krasnodar III
1.38
SKA Rostov
1.79

allows per match

Krasnodar III
1.88
SKA Rostov
1.19

finishing

Krasnodar III+0.00on par
SKA Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar III ↓

SKA Rostov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Krasnodar III or draw
50%
Krasnodar III or SKA Rostov
77%
Draw or SKA Rostov
73%

Winning margin

Krasnodar III wins by 2+
11%
SKA Rostov wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Krasnodar III 1+ goals
72%
Krasnodar III 2+ goals
37%
Krasnodar III 3+ goals
14%
SKA Rostov 1+ goals
84%
SKA Rostov 2+ goals
54%
SKA Rostov 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar III (draw refunded)
35%
SKA Rostov (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar III at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

SKA Rostov away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar III attack 1.38 + SKA Rostov defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

SKA Rostov attack 1.79 + Krasnodar III defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Krasnodar III scores more
27%
level
23%
SKA Rostov scores more
50%

SKA Rostov at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SKA Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Krasnodar III 0–3 SKA Rostov

SKA Rostov beat Krasnodar III 3-0 in Second League - Group 1 on October 30, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.