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Krasnodar III vs Anzhi — Second League - Group 1 2020

Krasnodar III
Krasnodar III
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Anzhi
Anzhi
3/25/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Krasnodar III31%
×Draw24%
Anzhi46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar III
1.38
Anzhi
1.72

Anzhi creates 25% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 32 away

creates per match

Krasnodar III
1.38
Anzhi
1.56

allows per match

Krasnodar III
1.88
Anzhi
1.38

finishing

Krasnodar III+0.00on par
Anzhi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar III ↓

Anzhi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Krasnodar III or draw
54%
Krasnodar III or Anzhi
76%
Draw or Anzhi
69%

Winning margin

Krasnodar III wins by 2+
14%
Anzhi wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Krasnodar III 1+ goals
75%
Krasnodar III 2+ goals
40%
Krasnodar III 3+ goals
16%
Anzhi 1+ goals
82%
Anzhi 2+ goals
51%
Anzhi 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar III (draw refunded)
40%
Anzhi (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar III at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Anzhi away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar III attack 1.38 + Anzhi defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Anzhi attack 1.56 + Krasnodar III defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Krasnodar III scores more
31%
level
24%
Anzhi scores more
46%

Anzhi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Anzhi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar III vs Anzhi

Krasnodar III and Anzhi drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 1 on March 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.