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Krasnodar 2 vs Volgar Astrakhan — First League 2018

Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
11/6/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Krasnodar 241%
×Draw28%
Volgar Astrakhan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar 2
1.29
Volgar Astrakhan
1.08

Krasnodar 2 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 76 away

creates per match

Krasnodar 2
1.35
Volgar Astrakhan
0.93

allows per match

Krasnodar 2
1.24
Volgar Astrakhan
1.24

finishing

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar 2 ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Krasnodar 2 or draw
69%
Krasnodar 2 or Volgar Astrakhan
72%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
59%

Winning margin

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
19%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
72%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
37%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
14%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
66%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
29%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
57%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar 2 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.35 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.93 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Krasnodar 2 scores more
41%
level
28%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
31%

Krasnodar 2 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Krasnodar 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar 2 vs Volgar Astrakhan

Volgar Astrakhan beat Krasnodar 2 2-0 in First League on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.