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Krasnodar 2 vs Spartak Moscow 2 — First League 2018

Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
12/5/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Krasnodar 243%
×Draw26%
Spartak Moscow 231%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar 2
1.48
Spartak Moscow 2
1.21

Krasnodar 2 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 73 away

creates per match

Krasnodar 2
1.35
Spartak Moscow 2
1.18

allows per match

Krasnodar 2
1.24
Spartak Moscow 2
1.60

finishing

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar 2 ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Krasnodar 2 or draw
69%
Krasnodar 2 or Spartak Moscow 2
74%
Draw or Spartak Moscow 2
57%

Winning margin

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
21%
Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
77%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
43%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
19%
Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
70%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
34%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
58%
Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar 2 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.60 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.35 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.18 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Krasnodar 2 scores more
43%
level
26%
Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
31%

Krasnodar 2 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Krasnodar 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Krasnodar 2 7–0 Spartak Moscow 2

Krasnodar 2 beat Spartak Moscow 2 7-0 in First League on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.