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Krasnodar 2 vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2018

Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
10/4/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Krasnodar 234%
×Draw28%
Nizhny Novgorod38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar 2
1.12
Nizhny Novgorod
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 53 away

creates per match

Krasnodar 2
1.35
Nizhny Novgorod
1.19

allows per match

Krasnodar 2
1.24
Nizhny Novgorod
0.89

finishing

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar 2 ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Krasnodar 2 or draw
62%
Krasnodar 2 or Nizhny Novgorod
72%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
66%

Winning margin

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
14%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
67%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
31%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
10%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
70%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
34%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
47%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar 2 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.89 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.35 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.12

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.19 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Krasnodar 2 scores more
34%
level
28%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
38%

Nizhny Novgorod at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar 2 vs Nizhny Novgorod

Nizhny Novgorod beat Krasnodar 2 3-2 in First League on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.