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Krasnodar 2 vs Mashuk-KMV — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mashuk-KMV
Mashuk-KMV
8/17/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 5Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Krasnodar 237%
×Draw25%
Mashuk-KMV37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar 2
1.39
Mashuk-KMV
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Krasnodar 2
1.33
Mashuk-KMV
1.00

allows per match

Krasnodar 2
1.78
Mashuk-KMV
1.44

finishing

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par
Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar 2 ↓

Mashuk-KMV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Krasnodar 2 or draw
63%
Krasnodar 2 or Mashuk-KMV
75%
Draw or Mashuk-KMV
63%

Winning margin

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
17%
Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
75%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
40%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
16%
Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals
75%
Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals
40%
Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
50%
Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar 2 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Mashuk-KMV away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.33 + Mashuk-KMV defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.00 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Krasnodar 2 scores more
37%
level
25%
Mashuk-KMV scores more
37%

Krasnodar 2 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Krasnodar 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar 2 vs Mashuk-KMV

Krasnodar 2 and Mashuk-KMV drew 2-2 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.