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Krasnodar 2 vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
11/2/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 16Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Krasnodar 242%
×Draw24%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar 2
1.67
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.50

Krasnodar 2 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Krasnodar 2
1.33
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.22

allows per match

Krasnodar 2
1.78
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
2.00

finishing

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par
Khimik Dzerzhinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar 2 ↓

Khimik Dzerzhinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Krasnodar 2 or draw
65%
Krasnodar 2 or Khimik Dzerzhinsk
76%
Draw or Khimik Dzerzhinsk
58%

Winning margin

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
21%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
81%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
50%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
23%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1+ goals
78%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2+ goals
44%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
55%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar 2 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Khimik Dzerzhinsk away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.33 + Khimik Dzerzhinsk defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Khimik Dzerzhinsk attack 1.22 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Krasnodar 2 scores more
42%
level
24%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk scores more
35%

Krasnodar 2 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Krasnodar 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Krasnodar 2 0–2 Khimik Dzerzhinsk

Khimik Dzerzhinsk beat Krasnodar 2 2-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.