Krasnodar 2 3–1 Chertanovo Moscow: Result & Stats

Krasnodar 2

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Chertanovo Moscow

8/12/2018

First League · Round 6Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar (Krasnodar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Krasnodar 242%

×Draw26%

Chertanovo Moscow32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krasnodar 2Expected goals in this matchChertanovo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.22

Krasnodar 2

1.45

Chertanovo Moscow

1.22

Krasnodar 2 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 54 away

1.35

creates per match

1.20

1.24

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Krasnodar 2

1.35

Chertanovo Moscow

1.20

allows per match

Krasnodar 2

1.24

Chertanovo Moscow

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar 2 ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Krasnodar 2 or draw

68%

Krasnodar 2 or Chertanovo Moscow

74%

Draw or Chertanovo Moscow

58%

Winning margin

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+

20%

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals

77%

Krasnodar 2 2+ goals

42%

Krasnodar 2 3+ goals

18%

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

70%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

34%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)

57%

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar 2 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.35 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.20 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Krasnodar 2 scores more

42%

level

26%

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

32%

Krasnodar 2 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Krasnodar 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff