Chertanovo Moscow 1–2 Krasnodar 2: Result & Stats

Chertanovo Moscow

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Krasnodar 2

8/14/2019

First League · Round 8Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow46%

×Draw26%

Krasnodar 228%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo MoscowExpected goals in this matchKrasnodar 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.09

Chertanovo Moscow

1.47

Krasnodar 2

1.09

Chertanovo Moscow creates 35% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 91 away

1.36

creates per match

0.89

1.30

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.36

Krasnodar 2

0.89

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.30

Krasnodar 2

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Krasnodar 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw

72%

Chertanovo Moscow or Krasnodar 2

74%

Draw or Krasnodar 2

54%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

23%

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

77%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

43%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

18%

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals

66%

Krasnodar 2 2+ goals

30%

Krasnodar 2 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

62%

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

Krasnodar 2 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.36 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

Krasnodar 2 attack 0.89 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

46%

level

26%

Krasnodar 2 scores more

28%

Chertanovo Moscow at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff